Introduction to the War in Ukraine

Widely considered to be Europe’s greatest conflict since the second World War, the Ukraine war has arguably been going on since 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea, part of Ukraine. While tensions have fluctuated since, Russia launched a full–scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year, sparking unprecedented escalation and international condemnation.

For a year now, Ukraine has valiantly defended their territory, sovereignty, and people from the brutality of a war they were forced into. The world has responded, the security stage has shifted, and the future has become less certain.

This article explores the contributing factors of the war, analyzes international response, and speculates about the future of Ukraine and the world.

Why Did Russia Invade?

One of the key aspects that contributed to the Russian invasion is mindset.  Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly, has a unique focus on imperial ambitions. Perhaps because previous territorial acquisitions went largely unchallenged, the Russian leader has spoken openly about retaking land that previously belonged to the Russian empire. As a result, other European nations have become increasingly aware of the threat Russia poses not just to their own individual security, but to the cohesiveness of Europe as a whole.

Ukraine, which was part of the collapsed Soviet Union, and is critical to world power, as it controls a significant amount of global food supply and has serious potential for world energy, would have a large degree of appeal from an imperialist point of view. However, Russian security concerns likely played a role as well. Putin repeatedly cited the threat posed by NATO and past deals with NATO being broken as reasons for the war. But on a deeper level, the threat Russia has perceived comes from Ukraine entering Western political structures.

Created after the Cold War, NATO originally served to contain communism’s impact in Europe, and by extension, the rest of the world. Now, it promotes democracy and the security interests of its member states. It has, in effect, opposed Russia for years, and that action has been reciprocated. Following the patterns of containment strategies, Russian leaders have historically tried to create agreements in which NATO would not continue to expand. But NATO has never been a part of any such agreements, and banning expansion of NATO has never been in consideration.

Now, NATO-backed Ukraine is fighting a war because Moscow perceives their interest in joining NATO as escalatory and threatening to their own security. However, it’s not likely that this was the sole concern. In this case, establishing a geopolitical sphere of influence is likely a motivating factor. By establishing a region where rival nations and interests are diminished, Russia increases their power and presence on the international stage.

Russian Miscalculation

Several things led Russia to finally invade Ukraine. However, many of these things were based on some sort of false premise. On February 24th last year, many thought Russia would overpower Ukraine fairly quickly. But one year on, we see that’s not been the case. Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience that few would have predicted, especially Russia.

Russia first assumed that they would not encounter significant resistance from Ukraine. It seems as though Russia’s illegal 2014 annexation of Crimea set a false precedent and heavily influenced Russian mentality entering the war. The first and most important Russian war aim was to capture the capital, Kiev, and overthrow Zelensky’s government. But within the first couple of weeks, it became abundantly clear it wouldn’t be that simple. Rather than capturing the capital, the military resorted to heavy shelling, which was ultimately unsuccessful. Ukraine, contrary to Russian belief, stood ready to defend Kiev, and successfully did so. This initial Russian failure really set the stage for the rest of the war, and forced Russia into a long-term war – one that they can’t decisively win.

Similarly, Russian decision-makers further made the mistake of counting on a divided Ukraine. While some eastern territories are controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, the majority of the country has been united in opposing Russia’s war efforts. Russia had figured that Ukraine was a lot more divided than they truly were. While it’s true that Ukraine has a certain degree of disunity considering regional and language differences, Ukraine’s President Zelensky has done a remarkable job in his ability to unify his country in order to fight Russian efforts.

More than underestimating Ukraine’s ability to fight, one of Russia’s most costly mistakes seems to have been overestimating its own capabilities. When making war plans, the Kremlin neglected to accurately assess the state of its military and supplies. The military has demonstrated a complete lack of coordination and insufficient supplies. Reports have circled regarding the unorganized chains of command at play – Russian officials supposedly weren’t told they would be invading until a couple days beforehand. Internally, this sent the military into chaos. Some refused to go forth with the invasion, and other units were still unaware of what was actually happening as they marched across the border. This kind of disorganization has been costly for the Russian army.

Zelensky Leading Ukraine’s Response

One of the most crucial factors of Ukraine, both as a nation and in terms of wartime success, is its President. Volodymyr Zelensky is the first democratically elected leader in Ukrainian history. This kind of democratic election gave Zelensky legitimacy that many other leaders don’t have. Zelensky has proven himself to be a remarkable leader, defiant and bold in the face of war, both in decision making, and outward appearance.

Now, Zelensky wasn’t always on the political stage. The Ukrainian President is also a successful actor, having voiced the Ukrainian version of Paddington bear, and even playing president on TV. And it seems his talents have translated into effective leadership. His ability to perform, communicate messages, and speak to people has created a powerful means with which to garner support for his country. Zelensky has met with numerous world leaders, and spoken political institutions such as US Congress and UK Parliament, and has had enormous success with both. His speeches reflect confidence, power, and effectively use historical references to appeal to his audience in order to secure the tools and support he needs to defend his country and provide for Ukraine’s soldiers.

Perhaps one of the most impressive aspects of Zelensky’s leadership is his ability to unify his country in an incredibly difficult time. Zelensky has been able to unite Ukranians and the world as a whole, partially because he’s proven himself to be relatable. When the Russian invasion started, many foreign leaders offered him the chance to leave. The world watched as Russian tanks approached Kiev from all directions, and watched as Zelensky remained in his city, leading war efforts and resistance. This demonstrated not only bravery, but that Zelensky was in the war with the rest of Ukraine. By using genuine communication, speaking directly to the Ukrainian people, enacting democratic reforms to truly create the people’s Ukraine, and inspiring his people, Zelensky has achieved something incredible – the unification of a historically divided people, and awe-inspiring success as a result.

Russian Response

Initially, the Russian public was shocked that their country was going to war. The first several months of the conflict witnessed protests erupt in Russia opposing the war, and some even going so far as to oppose Putin’s government. Authorities responded with protest crackdowns, thousands of arrests, a severe repression of media, and the further restriction of free speech and press within the country.

For the most part, Russian public opinion has faded into acceptance, echoing Russian state media. Many blame the West for the conflict, and others see it as necessary to “deNazify” Ukraine and support the Russian president.

However, certain events renewed initial opposition. In September, Putin signed a mobilization order calling up 300,000 across the nation to fight in the war. Heavy losses – the worst since World War Two – and a lack of soldiers incentivized mass mobilization, something Putin initially pledged to avoid, and something the majority of the public was opposed to. Within hours, plane tickets out of the country were sold out, and tens of thousands of people escaped to neighboring countries in order to avoid the draft. New protests erupted in opposition, and were subsequently oppressed.

World Response

Following the initial Russian invasion, many Western countries slammed Russia with severe sanctions. While it’s undeniable that there has been a negative impact on the Russian economy, this hasn’t been a sufficient response for a couple of reasons. First, they aren’t entirely comprehensive. Only about 30 countries in the world sanction Russia, and many other countries remain entirely willing to trade with Russia. China and India have strengthened their commercial ties to Russia in wake of the war, and as a result of sanctions, Russia has reached out to countries like Iran and North Korea for military supplies, because they are unable to properly construct their own. Furthermore, Russia was entirely prepared for this kind of response. Sanctions are something with which Russia is incredibly familiar with, and there are few historical examples that show sanctions have ever achieved their desired effect. Historically, Russia has always recovered from sanctioning. And especially important was the way Russia handled the sanctions. The Russian Central Bank did remarkably well in adapting to Western sanctions, despite numerous obstacles and restrictions. And this is reflected in economic figures. The International Monetary Fund shows that Russia’s economy has shrunk by only about 2.2% this past year, and is actually projected to grow, albeit by 0.3% next year. And by 2024, the IMF projects that growth will be 2.1% for Russia, surpassing projections for the US.

And more than this, Russia is fighting an opponent backed by a coalition with a combined GDP more than 20x its own economy. NATO and other Western nations produce and provide sophisticated weaponry. Generous and critical humanitarian, financial, and military aid has enabled Ukraine to not just hold off the Russian offensive, but successfully fight back and attain some degree of success that few, if any, anticipated.

Many countries around the world have adapted in order to help Ukraine win this war. And one of the most critical ways that’s been done is by providing relief for the mass exodus of Ukrainians. The war has displaced at least 30% of Ukraine’s population of 44 million. Many have fled across the world. Countries such as Poland and the UK have created programs to accept immigrants and improve living conditions and access to resources for those that need it. 

It’s become clear that Ukraine is more than a struggle for one nation’s sovereignty. The Ukraine war has evolved into a proxy war between Russia and the West. Western leaders have visited Kiev in a strong show of support, and Zelensky has visited many nations in order to negotiate, strengthen resilience, and assess future strategy. Western nations have overwhelmingly pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to ensure its victory, an incredible show of support that demonstrates just how critical it is that Russia does not emerge from this conflict successfully. As the war went on, the US and the West as a whole completely tied themselves to the fate of Ukraine. As such, there is an undeniable commitment to stick with Ukraine, fight not just the Russian army but Russian ideologies and global power, and ensure that Western values of democracy and self-determination emerge victorious not just in Ukraine, but globally.

What We’ll See Next

Right now, many are anticipating a renewed Russian offensive as commemoration of the one-year mark. However, military reports show no signs of increased troop concentration. This doesn’t entirely eliminate the possibility of a Russian offensive, but it does signify that it would take increased resources on Russia’s part, and potentially strain the military or even citizenry.

There are a couple of options Russia may be considering. There could be an aim of securing control of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, in order to appear more legitimate to separatists and Russian citizens, as well as finally achieve something meaningful. Few can forget Russia’s premature (and illegal)  ‘annexation’ of four of Ukraine’s eastern provinces – Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson. Yet while Putin was giving a speech commemorating Russian success, Ukrainian troops launched a counteroffensive, resulting in Ukraine regaining a significant amount of territory. Russia has never been able to fully control any of these regions, so a focus on key eastern territory would help achieve original war aims, establish control, and create a facade of success. But when considering this, it’s going undeniably result in significant casualties, especially for Russia.

But more than this, it may be that Putin’s focus has shifted from winning a war he didn’t actually anticipate to destroying the country he chose to invade. Russia undeniably miscalculated the invasion; few people, and especially not Russian officials, expected the war would be long and difficult. It’s become apparent that a Russian victory is becoming more and more of a pipe dream. Rather than burning their own nation to the ground in an effort to win what’s being increasingly considered an unwinnable war for Russia, the focus may shift towards destroying Ukraine so completely that even a Russian loss would devastate the West. By targeting critical infrastructure, healthcare facilities, civilians, and ruining the land, Ukraine already has a long road to recovery ahead of itself. If Russia wanted to annihilate Ukraine but accept an ultimate loss, the West would see its efforts destroyed and a broken Ukraine would become the symbol of Western failure and destruction.

Recently, Zelensky has been pushing Western nations, especially the UK, for fighter jets. Ukraine has been largely successful at preventing Russia from dominating the airspace, but lacks operational planes that aren’t dependent on old Soviet technology and parts. New, more powerful jets are critical to ensure Ukraine maintains air dominance and has the ability to continue defending itself. In a powerful move, Zelensky presented the Speaker of the House of Commons with a pilot’s helmet, and on it had written the words, “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it.” More than just training, Western fighter jets are going to be an important aspect of Ukraine’s fighting capabilities in the coming months.

The Future

First and foremost, Russia is going to forever change on the international stage. A massive tactical miscalculation has left Russia estranged and struggling. Facing massive losses, repression, and significant autocracy, Russia is entering an era dominated by the consequences of Putin’s decision to invade. Furthermore, Putin has, intentionally or not, tied his fate as Russia’s leader to the outcome of the Ukraine war. Putin has refused to acknowledge any mistakes or failures, and paints a pristine image of Russian power. But how long can this continue? By involving private armies, the public, and the rest of the world in his quest for power, Putin may have created the circumstances for mass civil unrest in the event of a serious change – this could ultimately realize his demise as Russia’s leader.

Moreover, we need to consider the future of Ukraine in more structural terms. It’s no secret that despite incredible success, Ukraine has still been absolutely devastated by this war. The economy has decreased by about 30%, means of production have been, in some cases, destroyed, children’s education has been disrupted, and critical infrastructure such as energy, medical, and transportation structures have been demolished. The road to recovery may be long and uncertain for Ukraine.

Finally, the way the world deals with Russia is going to alter significantly. Looking beyond a potential change in leadership or even a potential Russian civil war, Russia has few allies right now, and is not quickly making many friends. Dozens of nations have witnessed the lies and brutality of the Russian regime, and won’t forget quickly. 

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