Introduction

As one of the oldest independent countries in the world, Ethiopia has a rich history, and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the unique culture and prosperity of the nation has been tainted by bloody coups, internal conflicts, and drought. For the past three years, military conflict between the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front – TPLF – and Ethiopia’s armed forces have devastated the Tigray region, destabilized Ethiopia, and drawn international attention. This article will focus on explaining the causes and effects of this conflict, examining the status quo in Ethiopia, and analyzing what could happen in the future.

What Happened?

The TPLF has been the dominant political party of the Tigray semi-autonomous region, and has, in the past, dominated national politics despite representing an ethnic minority in the country. However, Tigrayan control of the country ended in 2018 with the election of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister, who was poised to end fighting between ethnic groups and soothe conflict with Eritrea. Tigrayan leaders were upset at losing control of the country, which led to significant tension between the dominant political party and Ahmed’s government. When Ahmed’s term as Prime Minister was extended in 2020 and elections were postponed, supposedly due to risks from the COVID-19 pandemic, Tigrayan leadership went ahead with local elections, angering the federal government. Soon, Ahmed ordered the Ethiopian National Defense Forces into the Tigray region and increased security, despite warnings from leaders that federal intervention would be taken as a declaration of war. This invasion of Tigray served as the start of what would become the Tigray War. Early on in this conflict, troops from Eritrea worked with Ethiopian forces to fight inside Tigray. The national forces implemented a communications blackout and cut off outside aid, and have displaced millions of people.

Moreover, the conflict in Tigray has inflamed ethnic conflict throughout the country. The region of Amhara saw attacks against the ethnic minority Oromo population. The Oromia army has fought with the Tigrayans, while forces from Amhara and neighboring Afar have sided with federal authorities.

But despite the admittedly bleak outlook, Tigrayan leadership and Ethiopian authorities signed a truce agreement in November in Pretoria, South Africa. The agreement called to disarm Tigrayan troops, return control to the Ethiopian government, withdraw Ethiopian troops, and allow full humanitarian aid access. While this is significant progress, it’s been a point of concern that the agreement doesn’t mention Eritrea. There’s a continued fear that Eritrean troops could continue to carry out actions against Tigrayans, or simply continue their occupation of the region. For this reason, there have been protests calling for the removal of Eritrean (and Amharan) forces, saying their presence in Tigray complicates aid delivery and is an obstacle to true peace.

Impacts of the Conflict

The conflict between Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF, as well as other groups, has been devastating for the people. Detailed reports of human rights abuses identify crimes such as the execution of civilians, looting, sexual violence, and attacks on civilian infrastructure, committed by both the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and the TPLF. In Western Tigray, forces carried out an ‘ethnic cleansing’ campaign targeting Tigrayans. Many were arbitrarily detained in poor conditions, without food or medicine, and dozens have died as a result. Moreover, Tigrayans have been forced to flee after being told that they don’t belong on their land, and being threatened with death. As a result of the intense violence and risk of living in Tigray, around five million people are estimated to have left or been forcibly displaced.

Human rights have also suffered terribly since the beginning of this crisis. In many areas of Tigray, Ethiopian authorities have blocked access to humanitarian aid, despite the fact that an estimated 90% of Tigrayans are food insecure. The army has blocked food, medicine, and fuel deliveries, and shut down basic services such as power and water, and eliminated health and education in the region. Even when the blockades ended, the humanitarian supplies delivered simply weren’t enough to meet the needs of the people, and the crisis continues today.

As a result of the conflict, Ethiopia’s position in the world has somewhat shifted. Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Prize winner, is no longer seen as an ideal peacemaker, and Ethiopia, once seen as a beacon of stability and prosperity for the Horn of Africa, is now destabilizing the region and worsening its refugee crisis and internal conflicts. Now the nation faces international condemnation from the UN, human rights groups, and other countries.

Moving Forward

Right now, government efforts for accountability and aid are inadequate, corrupt, and lack independent oversight, and many issues still continue. Troops from Eritrea and the Ethiopian region of Amhara still occupy Tigray, concerning many. Moreover, Tigray and Amhara have a history of conflict – not only have both sides committed crimes against the other’s population, but disputes over land and resources have worsened tensions. And further complicating matters, Amhara receives funding and support from Eritrea, which angers many Tigrayans. Reports from this month call attention to the continued ethnic cleansing campaign still happening in Tigray, but little action has been taken to actually solve the issue.

Humanitarian aid needs remain severe. An estimated 20 million people in Tigray are in need of aid, and so far, funding and supplies have been insufficient. Further complicating matters, the USAID program and the World Food Program recently paused aid deliveries over concerns of illicit sales and theft of food. Furthermore, past blockages of food in Tigray have been accused as deliberate efforts to impose mass starvation as a weapon of war. As Ethiopia looks to maintain control, this tactic may continue.

Finally, the Horn of Africa is an extremely volatile region, characterized by political upheaval and instability. And with Sudan recently embroiled in a civil war, it’s important to consider the relationship between the nations in this region. Before Sudan erupted into conflict in May, the general of the Sudanese Armed Forces tried to open relations with Ethiopia, while the general of the Rapid Support Forces tried to open relations with Eritrea. So far, neither country has become involved with Sudan’s civil war. However, that’s not to say neither will. Eritrea is predicted to become involved should fighting in Sudan spread further outside of Khartoum, the capital, towards the east. And if that happens, some experts fear, then Tigrayan fighters may also join the conflict as a way to get revenge on the Eritrean soldiers that terrorized the Tigray region. Speculation surrounding these possibilities has created a fear that Ethiopian or Eritrean involvement in Sudan could lead to a regional crisis, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa, worsening the food and humanitarian crisis, and prolonging violence in the region.

Overall, the prospects in Tigray remain dim. Humanitarian needs, military concerns, and recovery efforts all need sustained focus in order to find feasible solutions that protect the most vulnerable and put an end to the violence. Ethiopian authorities need to increase cooperation with other international actors and aid organizations, as well as permit oversight to ensure safe implementation of the peace deal. So while Ethiopia’s status quo right now may not be the promising nation of prosperity many would have liked to see, there remains opportunity for improvement and advances in the nation’s progress.

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